Wednesday, October 5, 2011

NFL Survivor - Week 5

Not sure if anyone actually watched it - but there was a football game on Monday Night. The Buccaneers (our survivor pick) ended up holding off the Colts, 24-17. That brings us to 4 winning weeks in a row! In the pool that I entered there were nearly 13,000 players to start with. Through four weeks - only 5,060 remain or 40% of the original entrants. Not too shabby. Last week's biggest offender was the Eagles who eliminated 8.3% of the remaining players. Good going. Click for this week's pick after the jump...

Looking at this week's slate of games - there's not really any particular matchup that jumps out to me. The Packers are on the road this week in Atlanta, no thanks. The Patriots are home, but against the division-rival Jets, I'll pass. The Saints travel to Carolina -
Cam Newton is capable of anything, and these are clearly not the subpar Panthers that we had forecasted coming into the season. The Texans have been good this year - but they host the Raiders at home without the help of Andre Johnson, no telling how that could work out. Before we get to this weeks pick, let's first take a look at the Survivor pick formula that we've used to get us to this point:

-Must be a home game... Why try to survive with a team on the road?
-Team should have significant edge at the Quarterback position
-Stay away from Divisional games - These teams see each other every year, twice a year. They know each other. Unless there's a significant advantage for one team (i.e. Saints / Panthers) I'm going to try to stay away from these matchups.
-Don't try to be cute, especially early on. I've gotten in trouble in years past trying to take teams that aren't usually favorites so that I can save the better teams for later on in the season. Not going to happen this year.

This week I look for the New York Giants to beat the Seattle Seahawks at home. We've picked against the Seahawks successfully when they traveled cross country to take on Pittsburgh in week 2. This week, they fly to New York on a game in which they will be 9.5 point underdogs. The Giants are coming off a fluke win against the Cardinals on the road - but I fully expect them to handle the Seahawks without the aid of officials. Eli Manning has done a good job of taking care of the football with only 3 turnovers so far on this season. That will be key if the Giants can get out to an early lead here. Take the Giants in week 5 and let's roll to week 6.

Previous Teams Selected:
Chargers over Vikings - Week 1
Steelers over Seahawks - Week 2
Titans over Broncos - Week 3
Bucs over Colts - Week 4

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